自己看出 非常空气指数影响中美洲纯燃气和供电局行业（举个例子德克萨斯州）有屡次包覆错误代码，哪儿的现货供应、实际需求和定价平衡量深受冲击试验，管和汽化纯燃气出口额的极大减少在中国产生了了品牌加盟想法。 周期性空气指数情况，中国绿色能源优惠政策因新疆气候影响方面而产生变化，影响中国纯燃气和汽化纯燃气行业弥漫不知道性。
因为回应某些影响，路孚特和 RBAC 将做一套全新的的季节预告场景及及绿色的气和夜化绿色的气基础建设统计假设、政策性、费用和自我约束这方面的很多影响融入 了 RBAC 的 G2M2 ®国内绿色的气予测数据了解软件化™，针对性国内绿色的气股票的市场完成了切实和直接的模拟系统数据了解。 本情况汇报具体简单介绍了意大利、法国和北美股票的市场频频影响的动态性，的帮助您为素的其中动荡不安季节预告进行筹备 并渡过关卡。
概述：
二零二零年冬秀，RBAC和路孚特最后一次媒体企业合作开拓了个不一样，围绕着 行将带来的2020/202半年用于夏季或严寒地区的夏天和另一个绿色气行业最新。 这一次媒体企业合作文章发表的绿色气发展前途引发的了浴霸的很大关心，不过2020/202半年的现场用于夏季或严寒地区的导致要比预测分析的不一样大很多。 由于北极圈寒流模拟网的报告更明显，破碎力更多。 储气量被变低到危机的低情况，欧洲绿色气行业在202半年讯速不断升温。因为2021/2030年用于夏季或严寒地区的接近，RBAC和路孚特-RBAC发部202半年欧洲而短时间内绿色气和煤气绿色气行业设想，为北半球行将带来的供暖的季节带来有的价值的考虑。
RBAC 专业团体应用 G2M2® 设计规划了共计36 六个月的予测，应用股票领域首要面情况和时候皮肤渗透性认识宇宙探索空间区域股票领域相互之间的互连。该专业团体应用19种情景来开展时候对全国大自然气平横的后果，及北美洲、欧洲国家和亞洲联络线的价位。
拙作还望每日分享去年同期瞻望的相对重要方面，并将去年同期与去年同期的预侧来进行客观事实的相对和进行分析，借以升高.我对卖场养成的解读。
亨利港（Henry Hub）房价对夜化当然气出口额的作用
当你们回望2020-202半年Refinitiv-RBAC全球性临时性大自然气和汽化大自然气市面设想（于去年12月说出）时，在这其中首要的感想具有左右几种上：
• 冬日标准很有可能性是亨利港 2020 年第 4 第三季度、半年度和 2021 年第 1 第三季度、半年度收费的包括win7驱动原则之首。美利坚冬日标准强劲有力，很有可能性会使天然的植物气放在国内的，而不会身为液化石油气天然的植物气寄往境外。
• 前边 COVID 这个世界中，产量商将强行在工作管理短时间是产量角度变得方便，而不再是只为进行更高方面的上升而花销更高零钱。
• 美国和中国的国内的需求量都依赖关系于汽化非人工气进出口，但对板块单价的损害其他。
所以与现实水平水平相信其的研究的20个时候怎么样场面（会根据上前20年的数据信息）缺失幅宽上下跌的水平。因此建模的假如说还不够特别，无非着力推进制造G2M2®世界大自然气预測了解的现货平台报价上升、使用需求波动和销售变少，以靠近现实水平发生了的季节时候怎么样水平。
2021 年 2 月，美洲地区的情况发生特别是愈来愈（请参阅如图是，请关注右上图的纵坐标定位轴的费用是左上图的两倍）。昨年该报告中利用的情境、数据信息和模仿状况不能更加综合考量的美洲地区其主要产地电力公司和先天气管道网的越冬做好准备问题与因而对汽化先天气出口产品诱发决定的还不确定关键因素。
统计图1 - 2020/2021亨利港（Henry Hub）价钱和韩国夜化本身气出口商分析
数据表格 2 - 2021/2022 （Henry Hub）亨利枢纽站的价格和新西兰汽化天然的气出口型估计
该科研的2021-2020年回顾与展望现示，2020年亨利港的年平均水平价格持续增长至5.50欧元/MmBtu左右两边，而18年的报表为3.50欧元/MmBtu。 与此同时，与18年的推测相悖，在今年意大利汽化大自然气口预估作业表示100%的产能。
一般来说以为，现在（瑞典）国外先天气市場的价格的涨价，煤气先天气口将下降，正是而且国外市場将行成更具的毛利潜质。 只不过，事情所以说远比，正是而且英国先天气和煤气先天气市場的价格爆涨，供给供不应求，时候英国夏季来到在即，贮藏平行远低于平常平行，所以说英国市場的毛利个人空间很有可能会更具。
全世界具有气和煤气具有气价
致使世界十大提供禁止依然会影响绿色气和汽化绿色气餐饮市场，对于的使用G2M2®的多种多样天氣情境，该统计分析预测出欧美汽化绿色气进口商的的价格差不超5人民币 /MMBtu。
统计图3 - 2021/2022 JKM 和TTF的的价格
德国天然的气市面 - TTF 单价控制主观因素
英国保存：
各不相同是在秋冬或失常酷暑难耐的秋季，美国的储气库货源一直都相比较一般来说极为不稳。不过，创计录低值的美国华北部地区楼顶贮存货源给TTF价格创造了大的上升水压。 在回忆过去 5 上半年，从 NWE 贮存的秋冬生成的天然冰气量从 2018-19 年温柔秋冬的 210 TWh 下跌方向机 2017-18 年很非常寒冷的秋冬的 400 TWh。2020/202在一年秋冬介于正常值季节情况，但贮存级别下跌了380 TWh。
条形图 4 - 法国数据存储库存商品层次
2020/202在几年冬日，致使亚太地区的需求在越来越酷热的冬日增添，夜化绿色气出口量量供应信息下降，促使夜化绿色气出口量量量远超顺利总体水平。夜化绿色气的转发量为20Bcm（220 TWh），底于前几年的33Bcm（360 TWh）。
2021 年 6 当月，西方文件存储货源为 160 TWh 或电容量的 30%，为曾经 5 年（2016-2020 年）的最底水准，清晰最低 64% 的三年期差不多水准。时候2020注气卡顿了差不多个月时间。到10月才进行注气，而从历史资料上看，注气是在4四月进行的。
统计图 5 – 欧洲国家西东北部部地上储气库状态
研究探讨队伍运行的 G2M2 建模 特征提取 19 种天气状况场面，涵盖许多种有差异 的诉求预估。哪些计划方案的成果体现了，预计在就在今年春季（2月-6月）非洲东东南部一般在230 TWh的当然气将被抽出。
在202一年-22年的夏季，该类别预测分析数据储存程度约为 135 TWh 或数据储存体积的 25%。相对比之重，5年的人均数值为35%。预期下一年欧洲国家大西北东南部数据储存销量程度将依然少于5年人均程度，到了2026年底才能够到了5年人均程度。
图形 6 - G2M2 法国保存存量平均水平
从土耳其进出口：
尽可能欧洲其他中国大个部分中国都要积极地地来进行绿色能源企业转型，但其非人工气餐饮市场仍严峻信任非人工气和夜化非人工气的进口商，已做到在国内供需。来到欧洲共同体中国的非人工气主要使用乌克兰、荷兰和北非的通道以其位于游戏各区域的夜化非人工气托车气力输送机。
近几十一个月来，土耳其对德国绿色气批发商商的不来确确定对TTF价钱形成了特大安全事故不良影响。德国市場对绿色气批发商商影响规律的其余征兆的反映还是会愈来愈激动。在下图示，当现身新的有关的信息北溪十二号的案例和通告，假如优惠政策影响规律和容积拍买后果等，价钱均会物有所振幅。
图形 7 – 北溪十二号关联行为和公示公告对价格多少的影响到
西方天然的气加工：
美国各国先天的气产品的生产数量不断回落，进而一个脚印直接加剧了TTF价额的上行下行压为。自 2018 年 1 月至今，美国各国日常先天的气产品的生产数量从有可能 2.8亿调至1.六亿立米米。可能自然能源转型发展的计划就已经判别，是没有征兆揭示欧洲国家经济共同体我国将强力设计规划国內的八天。为着稳定性性价额，美国各国需寻找到的做法已做到其他的先天的气的稳定性性批售，而在在这个不判别的十六国时期，模式还是会并不是开朗。
数据表格 8 - 欧州天然冰气生产的
关键报告的格式
用到 RBAC的G2M2®全世界非人工气估计具体分析软件源于所有时候情况下下模拟训练不一样的场景设计，企业发觉了了些必要得出结论，在要考虑到前景冬天时专业市场的根本时，要求用以监测。
• 与如今类似，天气预告是极大的未指定数和投资风险组成。
• 因为近些年各国先天气销售销售行业市场的紧张焦虑的情况，北半球一切超大型销售销售行业市场（韩国、欧洲国家或亚太地区）的冬日都比正常人严冬，这将导至包括核心区成本进每一步暴涨，包括先天气销售销售行业市场应该会在冬日受到短期计划安全风险。
• 若是 几年冬天里十分很冷，消费使用量将幅宽上增长，部位内的关闭电源可能会是切勿制止的。
还有，原因中国各省是需要更长的时长来补足其地下水储气的货源，这意示着环球纯液化气市场中的坐立不安的情形将持续不断更长的时长。
• 国内 、南北美洲等國家的所需成长或许会日益突出如今市扬的焦虑，威协亚州和英国用户掠夺差不多的煤气本身气氧气减压阀。
• 拉丁美洲国外进口芬兰的输送管道天然的气总产量将仍在收到规定，影响力各种因素仍取决于北溪第二线哪一天能即日起开工。
• 关与北溪三线，致使其资质身份v认证程序流程等元素，再创新高再起动起止日期英文就已有有些卡顿，这些是管线网已经开启财政成本操作和展开房地产业流之间的结果一步骤。除其它的议题外，资质身份v认证整个环节由于欧美封禁和匈牙利抵制，但是再起动流程手续等待的时间长，是没办法足够在宣布的202半年8月1日展开起止日期英文。从8月初管线网运营管理商向法国风险管控组织填写信息使用展开，资质身份v认证整个环节再创新高必须要6-4个月可以进行。在某次的研究中的如果是北溪三线于22年弟一期度末展开已经开启财政成本商业。
• 其它个分险是，可能付出运行，北溪一号必须要 几米时光才会扩大快速交货，工程团队不断突破工艺瓶颈，根据不同产品的特性，制定不同的生产工艺量。有史以来就行，白土耳其从未承诺书能够新的预测路线地图向法国卸料多少个当然气。系统设计这一种情形，法国原产白土耳其的通道当然气占有量仍将面临的限制。
理论依据
冷天一直会以如此或本来的办法工作应响行业的无可预知的情形。 自然能源技术转型升级期间内业务需求延续增涨和销售重要将给全部北半球的价值引来上升负荷。 便用本研发中均做的行业模以，不错短时间解析不同的暗藏比如和情况展望未来，以选定一类型靠普的后果，便进行合适的行为，满足安排的梦想，包含自然能源技术优化中需求的梦想。
RBAC工司创始于198六年，常见担任建设和服务器维护是欧洲和部位本身气和汽化本身气的行业市場預測软件，其采用数据源统计学绘图、数据源统打具体深入定量分析、数据源统计学java算法建设和数据源库设置角度等专业课程短信向能源资源操作设计的行业工司还有有关能源资源操作设计、流量和环镜的市政府医疗机构供给更强的具体深入定量分析机器。G2M2®欧洲本身气預測具体深入定量分析软件™专为欧洲本身气的行业市場的溶合建设计方案划而设置。它都是套完整性的三维模型软件，使用于預測欧洲本身气的行业市場的本身气和汽化本身气生产加工、运输管理、补充和购物。欲理解更好短信，请登陆：//rbac.com/
James Brooks, Ning Lin, Xin Tang
Background:
When caught in a heavy storm there is a natural reaction to go into a mode of coping to the situation. That coping may get you through the storm but could have long term unexpected ramifications. Since the release of last year’s Refinitiv-RBAC 2020/2021 Winter Outlook a lot has changed in energy economics, operations, trade and infrastructure.
We have seen extreme weather drive multiple compound failures in the North American gas and power markets (e.g. Texas), where supply, demand and price balances were shocked and a reduction in exports by pipeline and LNG created ripple effects across the globe. Along with weather events, a shift in global energy policy due to climate change concerns has contributed to the uncertainty swirling around gas and LNG markets around the world.
To deal with these changes, Refinitiv and RBAC have incorporated a whole new set of weather scenarios along with numerous changes in gas and LNG fundamentals, policies, costs and constraints into RBAC’s G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™, in order to produce an updated outlook for the 2021/2022 winter season. This report gives a detailed look at the changing dynamics of the U.S., European and Asian markets and delivers real insights to help you prepare for and get through any tumultuous weather ahead.
Introduction:
In the Fall of 2020, analysts at RBAC and Refinitiv partnered to develop several scenarios around the upcoming 2020/2021 winter season’s weather and other gas market dynamics. Simulations using G2M2 yielded several impactful insights including:
· Winter demand would likely be one of the primary drivers for Henry Hub price for 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q1. Strong US winter demand would likely keep gas at home rather than being sent overseas as LNG.
· In a post-COVID world, producers would be forced to be more flexible in managing short-cycle production, rather than outspending cash to achieve more aggressive growth.
· Europe and Asia domestic demand would both rely on LNG imports but influence its regional price differently.
This initial joint gas outlook generated a great deal of attention from the industry. But the actual winter of 2020/2021 had a far greater impact. Arctic blasts were more severe and more damaging than the results of all scenarios the team simulated. Gas storage was drawn down to dangerously low levels. As a result global gas markets have heated up to prepare for this coming winter. With the 2021/2022 winter season approaching, the RBAC and Refinitiv team has rededicated its efforts to producing a winter gas outlook for the coming heating season in the northern hemisphere.
Like in the previous study, the Refinitiv-RBAC team developed a series of 36 month forecasts using G2M2, exploring the interconnection between regional markets using both fundamental drivers and weather sensitivities. The team made runs using 19 different weather scenarios to estimate their impact on the global gas balance as well as prices at hubs in North America, Europe, and Asia.
Impact of Henry Hub Price on LNG Exports
As we look back at the 2020/2021 Refinitiv-RBAC study, the 20 weather scenarios studied (based on the last 20 years of data) predicted a far less tumultuous and volatile winter season than nature delivered. Scenarios were not severe enough to push the simulation to generate spot price spikes, demand shocks and supply reductions approaching those that resulted from winter weather conditions that actually happened.
This was especially true for North America in February 2021 (see lower-left graph below but note the price scale is twice that of the upper left graph). The scenarios, data and simulation conditions could not have included the unknown factors around the unpreparedness of an insufficiently winterized power and gas pipeline network in the key producing region of North America and the resultant impact on LNG exports.
Chart 1 – 2020/2021 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
Chart 2 – 2021/2022 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
The study’s 2021/2022 outlook shows a significant increase in the average Henry Hub price to about $5.50/MmBtu in 2022 compared to $3.50MmBtu in last year’s study. In addition, in contradistinction to last year’s forecast, this year’s study projects LNG exports running close to 100% capacity throughout the forecast.
One might think with the increase in domestic prices for gas one would see a reduction in LNG exports as domestic markets would yield a greater potential for profit. However, that is not the case, as global gas and LNG prices have skyrocketed with supply shortages and lower than normal storage levels on the cusp of winter in Europe.
Global Gas and LNG Price
As global supply constraints continue to impact the gas and LNG markets, regardless of the varied weather scenarios studied using G2M2, the study projects price spreads for US LNG exports well above $5/MMBtu for the coming winter.
Chart 3 – 2021/2022 JKM and TTF Prices
European Gas Market – TTF Price Drivers
European Storage:
Gas storage has always been the market stabilizing factor during the winter season or unusually hot summers. However, record low Northwest European underground storage inventories have put intense upward pressure on TTF prices. Over the last 5 years, the amount of gas withdrawn during winter from NWE storage has swung wildly from 210 TWh during a mild winter of 2018-19 to 400 TWh in a very cold winter of 2017-18. The 2020/2021 winter was near normal weather conditions, but storage levels were down by 380 TWh.
Chart 4 – European Storage Inventory Levels
Imports from Russia:
Although European nations are leading the way in the energy transition, European gas markets still rely heavily on gas and LNG imports to meet domestic demand. Gas imports into the EU are mainly delivered through pipelines from Russia, Norway, and North Africa as well as by LNG tankers from around the world.
In recent months, uncertainty around Russian gas supply to Europe have had a significant impact on TTF prices. The European market continues to be very reactive to any indication of changes to gas supply. For example, there was a very strong reaction to potential changes around Russian supply from the Nordstream 2 pipeline and capacity auction results as you can see in the chart below.
Chart 7 – Price Impact of Supply Events and Announcements
European Gas Production:
Further exacerbating the upward pressure on TTF prices, European gas production has continued to decline. There has been a drop in production from approximately 280 to 160 MCM/D since January 2018. With the targets for the energy transition well established, there is no indication that the EU will bolster domestic production. In order to stabilize prices, it will need to find a way to secure more gas supply, which will prove to be quite difficult in these uncertain times.
Chart 8 – European Gas Production
Key Take-Aways
Running a variety of weather scenarios using RBAC’s G2M2 Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG has yielded some very important take-aways that need to be evaluated when considering one’s market fundamentals analysis for the upcoming winter season.
· As always, the weather is one of the biggest unknowns and risks.
· Given the current tightness situation in the gas market globally, colder than normal winter in any of the big markets of the Northern hemisphere (US, Europe or Asia) would send major hub prices even higher and leave markets with the risk of a physical gas shortage over the winter months.
· Some blackouts or demand disruptions may be inevitable if demand is unusually high this winter.
· In addition, this also means that the tightness in global gas market will remain for longer as it will take more time for countries to replenish their underground storage stocks.
· Demand growth in other regions (i.e., China, South America) could exacerbate the current tightness in the market forcing Asian and European customers to compete for the same LNG cargoes.
· Europe could expect continuing limited Russia gas supply. When it will begin flowing and how much gas to be expected from Nord Stream 2 is still quite uncertain.
· Regarding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, there has already been some delay in the expected start date due to its certification process, which is a mandatory final step before the pipeline can be commissioned and start commercial flows. Among other things, the certification process was hampered by American sanctions and opposition from Poland and did not start soon enough to meet the originally scheduled start date of October 1st, 2021. The certification process is expected to take up to 6-8 months to complete from early September when the pipeline operator submitted its application to the German regulator. For this study, the team has assumed it to start flowing by the end of Q1 2022.
· Another risk is how long it will take Nord Stream 2 to ramp up deliveries once it is commissioned. To date, Russia has not committed to any figure on how much gas will be send to Europe via the new projected route. There is a possibility that it may be at limited capacity.
Conclusion
Winter will always deal unpredictable conditions that impact the market one way or another. Continued growth in demand and tight supply during the energy transition will put upward pressure on prices throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Using market simulation such as has been done in this study allows one to quickly analyze a variety of potential assumptions and scenario outlooks to determine a credible range of results in order to make good decisions to achieve an organization’s goals including those demanded by the energy transition.
Team Leads:
RBAC
Dr. Ning Lin, Ph.D. – ;ning.lin@rbac.com
Dr. Robert Brooks, Ph.D. – robert.brooks@rbac.com
Refinitiv
Nantanaporn Udomchaiporn – nantanaporn.udomchaiporn@refinitiv.com
Xin Tang – xin.tang@refinitiv.com
RBAC Inc. is the market leading supplier of global and regional gas and LNG market simulation systems. These systems provide industry analysts powerful tools for supporting corporate investment and M&A strategy, improving free cash flow, achieving environmental and sustainability goals, including reduction of CO2 emissions, conducting credible and useful risk analysis and planning, and enhancing profitability in commodity trading. Organizations using RBAC’s products and services include energy industry firms and consultants, ISOs and RTOs, and government agencies involved with energy, transportation, and the environment. The G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ is designed for developing scenarios for the converging global gas market. It is a complete system of interrelated models for forecasting natural gas and LNG production, transportation, storage, and deliveries across the global gas markets.
Refinitiv, an LSEG business, is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure. Serving more than 40,000 institutions in over 190 countries, we provide information, insights, and technology that drive innovation and performance in global markets. Refinitiv Natural Gas and LNG Research teams provide the most comprehensive insights on market developments, price movements and supply/demand forecasts by leveraging sophisticated proprietary modelling and forecasting techniques. Our reports can help you understand the global gas market and empower you to make informed trading decisions. For more information, please visit: //www.refinitiv.com/en
