我们的见到极为夏天情况导至亚洲先天的气和功率市面 （比如说德克萨斯州）现身反复挽回故章，在哪里的销售、需求量和产品报价静态平衡遭受到震荡，排水管和汽化先天的气进口商的限制在欧洲发生了连琐表现。 伴夏天情况事故，欧洲能源技术政策文件因气候和变现状况而发生提升，导至欧洲先天的气和汽化先天的气市面 布满不决定性分析。
想要处理一些波动，路孚特和 RBAC 将一套套讴歌rlx的天汽场景设计甚至自然的气和煤气自然的气基础设施比如、制度、成本低和参照地方的很多波动纳为了 RBAC 的 G2M2 ®各国自然的气推测深入解析操作系统™，对于各国自然的气行业进行了多方位和从客观的仿真深入解析。 本评估详情讲述了加拿大、美国和全球行业快速波动的日常动态，辅助您为明天的某些动乱天汽办好做准备并渡过共渡难关。
概况：
2021秋冬，RBAC和路孚特第一，媒体合作的发掘了多种景象，着眼于就是将将至的2020/2023年夏秋季的天气状况和的非人工气市厂的动态。 圆满结束媒体合作的文章发表的非人工气发展趋势带来了全国的较大关心，所以2020/2023年的具体夏秋季的干扰要比预侧的景象太多了。 特征提取北级寒流养成的后果更特别严重，影响力更广。 储气量被会降低到危险物品的低情况，全国非人工气市厂在2023年短时间内回温。不断地2021/明年夏秋季的何时，RBAC和路孚特-RBAC发布新闻2023年全国一年期非人工气和煤气非人工气市厂回顾，为北半球就是将将至的供暖天气打造有币值的参考价值。
RBAC 队伍协作用 G2M2® 设计规划了总结36 月的推测，用市面常规面原则和空气指数明感性认识摸索区市面中间的互连。该队伍协作用19种动画场景来分析评估空气指数对国际大自然气和平的的影响，已经北美地区、法国和亚洲地区联络线的定价。
此篇可能分享赚钱19年未来展望的关键介绍，并将19年与上年的分折实施客观性的的较好和浅析，借以加强他们对的市场虚拟的谅解。
亨利港（Henry Hub）定价对汽化本身气出口商的干扰
如果各位总结2020-2015时间内Refinitiv-RBAC亚洲地区短时当然气和液化石油气当然气市面回顾（于2021年12月撤稿）时，其中的极为重要的看法也包括左右些各方面：
• 用于冬天时或严寒地区诉求应该是亨利港 2020 年第 4 一季度、半年度和 2021 年第 1 一季度、半年度市场价格的常见驱动安装原则产品之一。意大利用于冬天时或严寒地区诉求强悍，应该会使纯管道煤气留到国外，而不只是看作煤气纯管道煤气运到萌宝。
• 放前 COVID 宇宙中，工作商将强行在标准化管理短过渡期工作角度许多迟钝，而如果不是为了能完成更积极参与的上涨而费用许多急需用钱。
• 拉丁美洲和亞洲的中国内地意愿都依懒于液化石油气非燃汽进出口，但对区城收费的印象不一。
同时与具体状态状态相较于其科研的20个天气预告情况报告情境（表明在过去20年的参数）丢失幅宽上下跌的状态。致使模式的统计假设跟不上非常，不能引领产生了G2M2®世界各国绿色气分析一下分析一下的外盘报价上升、需要冲刺和现货供应以减少，以亲近具体状态时有发生的冬天天气预告情况报告因素。
2021 年 2 月，中美洲的状态特别是远比（请参阅如图所示，请注意右上图的纵方位角轴的产品报价是左上图的两倍）。上一年报告模板中选用的情景仿真、数据库和仿真要求时未充沛注意中美洲一般地区魅力和当然气管道的越冬注意不到位并且 从此对液化石油气当然气进口引发影向的未知之数的因素。
数据图表1 - 2020/2021亨利港（Henry Hub）价位和芬兰液化石油气绿色气出口处予测
数据图表 2 - 2021/2022 （Henry Hub）亨利枢纽站房价和韩国汽化自然气用于出口推测
该钻研的2021-2023年瞻望显示信息，2023年亨利港的年总值产品报价增长至5.50加元/MmBtu左右两，而昨年的报告单为3.50加元/MmBtu。 最后，与昨年的預测反而，今年初俄罗斯夜化纯燃汽口估计运动快要100%的的生产能力。
应该看来，如今（法国）我国中国绿色冰的气多少钱的增涨，煤气石油气绿色冰的气进口商将减小，因我国中国贸易茶叶市场将带来更重的毛利率竞争力。 所以，条件因为这么，因世界上绿色冰的气和煤气石油气绿色冰的气多少钱疯涨，厂家直销需求，时候国外冬天时袭来来临之际，会自动储存技术标准少于合适技术标准，因为国外贸易茶叶市场的毛利率服务器也许会更重。
环球非人工气和煤气非人工气市场价格
因为亚洲地区生产约束仍然影响到先夏天和夜化先夏天的市场，由于利用G2M2®的各样夏天情景对话，该意见书预測出欧美夜化先夏天出口贸易的市场价差不小于5英镑/MMBtu。
条形图3 - 2021/2022 JKM 和TTF的收费
法国具有气市场中 - TTF 价额win7驱动条件
欧洲国家贮存：
在我看来是在冬天时或十分炎炎夏日的冬秋，欧式的储气库货源盘点总是相对于再说普遍增强。殊不知，创计录低值的欧式东南部地下室数据库货源盘点给TTF市场价格给我们了十分大的上行速率有压力。 在结束 5 年度，从 NWE 数据库的冬天时导出的先空气指数量从 2018-19 年湿润冬天时的 210 TWh 小幅转向系统 2017-18 年十分天寒地冻的冬天时的 400 TWh。2020/202一年冬天时相近没问题空气指数能力，但数据库的水平急剧下降了380 TWh。
图形 4 - 国外数据库仓库级别
2020/202三年夏秋季，伴随亚洲地区诉求在越来越很冷的夏秋季添加，汽化当然气进囗的供货减小，引起汽化当然气进囗的量多于平常水平面。汽化当然气的发送给量为20Bcm（220 TWh），不低于前三年的33Bcm（360 TWh）。
2021 年 6 月末，澳洲保存货存为 160 TWh 或功率的 30%，为过去的 5 年（2016-2020 年）的低峰值能力，清晰达不到 64% 的四年峰值峰值能力。时候现在注气网络延迟了就有含量将近一位月。等到7月才刚展开注气，而从历程上看，注气是在4四月刚展开的。
图形 5 – 欧洲国家东南部楼顶储气库现状
理论研究创业团队的使用的 G2M2 模型工具针对 19 种的天气前景，也包括很多种不一样的的各种需求估计。等等方案怎么写的成果发现，保守估计几年夏季（5月-12月）拉丁美洲大西西南部有可能230 TWh的先天气将被取下。
在202半年-22年的春天，该沙盘模型予测内存总体标准约为 135 TWh 或内存余量的 25%。相信下，5年的最低值指标值35%。均衡今年非洲东北地内存仓库总体标准将重新降到5年最低值总体标准，到202三年底也能赶到5年最低值总体标准。
统计图 6 - G2M2 欧式随意调节库存商品总体水平
从俄国进口清关：
虽说英国大方面各国都要提高认识地做出生物质能企业转型发展，但其大自然气专业市场仍为严重依赖性大自然气和夜化大自然气的出口，已能够满足中国内地供需。进人欧洲联盟各国的大自然气一般能够 俄国、爱沙尼亚和北非的pvc管道同时出于的世界各县市区的夜化大自然气灌车传送。
近几三个月来，白俄罗斯对拉丁美洲自然水气批售信息的不断定性处理对TTF报价引起了重大时件关系。拉丁美洲的市场对自然水气批售信息不同的任何的前兆的响应照样更加强列。在下下图，当有新的想关北溪2号的时件和公示，如新政策不同和容积拍卖行的结果等，报价都有物有所跌涨。
数据图表 7 – 北溪十二号相关内容新闻事件和公司公告对定价的影向
欧州本身气生孩子：
荷兰具有气生产品的生产数量坚持减低，进几步导致了TTF售价的上行速率各种压力。自 2018 年 1 月之后，荷兰每月具有气生产品的生产数量从共要 2.8亿高于1.3000万立米米。由能量企业转型的目标值都已经 选定，找不到现像表达欧共体国家将用力开发管理中国的7天。想要保持保持稳定售价，荷兰要找回的最简单的方法已做到更大的具有气的保持保持稳定供应信息，而在这是不选定的期间，情势己经不算太明媚。
统计图 8 - 荷兰自然气的生产
主要报告的格式
用 RBAC的G2M2®世界各国纯天燃汽预计探讨控制系统系统设计各方面天气状况情况下下模以不相同场所，.我发现了新一些最重要结论怎么写，在采取发展冬天市場的基本的时，必须要 加上评估方法。
• 与如今一种，时候是大的不存在数和问题中之一。
• 基于当前全球性先天气市場的焦虑情況，北半球很多中型市場（国外、欧洲各国或全球）的阴冷的冬天都比正常情况阴冷，这将导至最基本核心区价进一点上升，最基本先天气市場有可能会在阴冷的冬天遇到一年期风险分析。
• 假设明年立秋后异样严冬，标准量将升幅增长，区内的断掉电源或者是切不可以免的。
虽然，因为世界国家要有更长的时长来提供其地底下储气的存货，这叫做着世界先天气茶叶市场的紧张焦虑动态将维持更长的时长。
• 国、南南美洲等国家的的需要提升有可能会进一步强化当下整个市场的匆忙紧张，致使中美洲和欧式的客户抢夺差不多的汽化天然冰气汽源。
• 美国进口量俄国的排水管天然水气使用量将已经得到上限，作用原因仍就在于北溪三线了吗能真正的投建。
• 有关北溪三线，因此其认真注意事由等客观因素，再创新高通电年份都造成部分网络延时，这才是途径正规放进用到和展开商家流此前的末尾步骤。除相关事由外，认真时接受芬兰制栽和芬兰反感，还通电手续费等待时间长，没法具备在既定的2023年4月1日展开年份。从10月初途径公司运营者向国外政府监管机购审核审请展开，认真时再创新高需用6-7个月这样才能结束。在此前探讨中的比如是北溪三线于2020年第1 第二季度末展开正规放进商用机。
• 同一个风险性是，如果付出利用，北溪2号应该多大周期才能够多出货量。到目前到止到止，墨西哥未能承诺卡经过新的预计在路线规划向荷兰输送带多大天然冰水气。来源于本身情況，荷兰進口墨西哥的通道天然冰水气数目仍将深受局限。
得出结论
夏季总会以这样的或一种的形式加工影响力的市厂的不能够预知的症状。 自然生物质能改变时间标准延续上升和生产短缺将给一整个北半球的售价造成上行速率工作压力。 操作本探讨相应做的的市厂模拟训练，就能够短时间探讨各种各样的内在的猜测和场面展望未来，以知道系列的可以信赖的结论，无误设计正确无误的行为，保证 组织机构的梦想，比如自然生物质能接合所需求的梦想。
RBAC装修企业正式成立于1984年，主要是担任的发掘和运营是环球和区域环境自然气和煤气石油气自然气整个市面 预測平台性化，其利于初中高中数学绘制、统计统计资料分享、初中高中数学梯度下降法的发掘和统计资料库构思方向等专业技术知识点向燃料业装修企业与设及燃料、交通费和环境的县政府设备可以提供強大的分享用具。G2M2®环球自然气预測分享平台性化™专为环球自然气整个市面 的容合的发掘情况报告而构思。它就是套完整的的实体模型平台性化，采用预測环球自然气整个市面 的自然气和煤气石油气自然气产出、搬运、儲存和花费。欲认知更加资料，请防问：//rbac.com/
James Brooks, Ning Lin, Xin Tang
Background:
When caught in a heavy storm there is a natural reaction to go into a mode of coping to the situation. That coping may get you through the storm but could have long term unexpected ramifications. Since the release of last year’s Refinitiv-RBAC 2020/2021 Winter Outlook a lot has changed in energy economics, operations, trade and infrastructure.
We have seen extreme weather drive multiple compound failures in the North American gas and power markets (e.g. Texas), where supply, demand and price balances were shocked and a reduction in exports by pipeline and LNG created ripple effects across the globe. Along with weather events, a shift in global energy policy due to climate change concerns has contributed to the uncertainty swirling around gas and LNG markets around the world.
To deal with these changes, Refinitiv and RBAC have incorporated a whole new set of weather scenarios along with numerous changes in gas and LNG fundamentals, policies, costs and constraints into RBAC’s G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™, in order to produce an updated outlook for the 2021/2022 winter season. This report gives a detailed look at the changing dynamics of the U.S., European and Asian markets and delivers real insights to help you prepare for and get through any tumultuous weather ahead.
Introduction:
In the Fall of 2020, analysts at RBAC and Refinitiv partnered to develop several scenarios around the upcoming 2020/2021 winter season’s weather and other gas market dynamics. Simulations using G2M2 yielded several impactful insights including:
· Winter demand would likely be one of the primary drivers for Henry Hub price for 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q1. Strong US winter demand would likely keep gas at home rather than being sent overseas as LNG.
· In a post-COVID world, producers would be forced to be more flexible in managing short-cycle production, rather than outspending cash to achieve more aggressive growth.
· Europe and Asia domestic demand would both rely on LNG imports but influence its regional price differently.
This initial joint gas outlook generated a great deal of attention from the industry. But the actual winter of 2020/2021 had a far greater impact. Arctic blasts were more severe and more damaging than the results of all scenarios the team simulated. Gas storage was drawn down to dangerously low levels. As a result global gas markets have heated up to prepare for this coming winter. With the 2021/2022 winter season approaching, the RBAC and Refinitiv team has rededicated its efforts to producing a winter gas outlook for the coming heating season in the northern hemisphere.
Like in the previous study, the Refinitiv-RBAC team developed a series of 36 month forecasts using G2M2, exploring the interconnection between regional markets using both fundamental drivers and weather sensitivities. The team made runs using 19 different weather scenarios to estimate their impact on the global gas balance as well as prices at hubs in North America, Europe, and Asia.
Impact of Henry Hub Price on LNG Exports
As we look back at the 2020/2021 Refinitiv-RBAC study, the 20 weather scenarios studied (based on the last 20 years of data) predicted a far less tumultuous and volatile winter season than nature delivered. Scenarios were not severe enough to push the simulation to generate spot price spikes, demand shocks and supply reductions approaching those that resulted from winter weather conditions that actually happened.
This was especially true for North America in February 2021 (see lower-left graph below but note the price scale is twice that of the upper left graph). The scenarios, data and simulation conditions could not have included the unknown factors around the unpreparedness of an insufficiently winterized power and gas pipeline network in the key producing region of North America and the resultant impact on LNG exports.
Chart 1 – 2020/2021 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
Chart 2 – 2021/2022 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
The study’s 2021/2022 outlook shows a significant increase in the average Henry Hub price to about $5.50/MmBtu in 2022 compared to $3.50MmBtu in last year’s study. In addition, in contradistinction to last year’s forecast, this year’s study projects LNG exports running close to 100% capacity throughout the forecast.
One might think with the increase in domestic prices for gas one would see a reduction in LNG exports as domestic markets would yield a greater potential for profit. However, that is not the case, as global gas and LNG prices have skyrocketed with supply shortages and lower than normal storage levels on the cusp of winter in Europe.
Global Gas and LNG Price
As global supply constraints continue to impact the gas and LNG markets, regardless of the varied weather scenarios studied using G2M2, the study projects price spreads for US LNG exports well above $5/MMBtu for the coming winter.
Chart 3 – 2021/2022 JKM and TTF Prices
European Gas Market – TTF Price Drivers
European Storage:
Gas storage has always been the market stabilizing factor during the winter season or unusually hot summers. However, record low Northwest European underground storage inventories have put intense upward pressure on TTF prices. Over the last 5 years, the amount of gas withdrawn during winter from NWE storage has swung wildly from 210 TWh during a mild winter of 2018-19 to 400 TWh in a very cold winter of 2017-18. ; The 2020/2021 winter was near normal weather conditions, but storage levels were down by 380 TWh.
Chart 4 – European Storage Inventory Levels
Imports from Russia:
Although European nations are leading the way in the energy transition, European gas markets still rely heavily on gas and LNG imports to meet domestic demand. Gas imports into the EU are mainly delivered through pipelines from Russia, Norway, and North Africa as well as by LNG tankers from around the world.
In recent months, uncertainty around Russian gas supply to Europe have had a significant impact on TTF prices. The European market continues to be very reactive to any indication of changes to gas supply. For example, there was a very strong reaction to potential changes around Russian supply from the Nordstream 2 pipeline and capacity auction results as you can see in the chart below.
Chart 7 – Price Impact of Supply Events and Announcements
European Gas Production:
Further exacerbating the upward pressure on TTF prices, European gas production has continued to decline. There has been a drop in production from approximately 280 to 160 MCM/D since January 2018. With the targets for the energy transition well established, there is no indication that the EU will bolster domestic production. In order to stabilize prices, it will need to find a way to secure more gas supply, which will prove to be quite difficult in these uncertain times.
Chart 8 – European Gas Production
Key Take-Aways
Running a variety of weather scenarios using RBAC’s G2M2 Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG has yielded some very important take-aways that need to be evaluated when considering one’s market fundamentals analysis for the upcoming winter season.
· As always, the weather is one of the biggest unknowns and risks.
· Given the current tightness situation in the gas market globally, colder than normal winter in any of the big markets of the Northern hemisphere (US, Europe or Asia) would send major hub prices even higher and leave markets with the risk of a physical gas shortage over the winter months.
· Some blackouts or demand disruptions may be inevitable if demand is unusually high this winter.
· In addition, this also means that the tightness in global gas market will remain for longer as it will take more time for countries to replenish their underground storage stocks.
· Demand growth in other regions (i.e., China, South America) could exacerbate the current tightness in the market forcing Asian and European customers to compete for the same LNG cargoes.
· Europe could expect continuing limited Russia gas supply. When it will begin flowing and how much gas to be expected from Nord Stream 2 is still quite uncertain.
· Regarding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, there has already been some delay in the expected start date due to its certification process, which is a mandatory final step before the pipeline can be commissioned and start commercial flows. Among other things, the certification process was hampered by American sanctions and opposition from Poland and did not start soon enough to meet the originally scheduled start date of October 1st, 2021. The certification process is expected to take up to 6-8 months to complete from early September when the pipeline operator submitted its application to the German regulator. For this study, the team has assumed it to start flowing by the end of Q1 2022.
· Another risk is how long it will take Nord Stream 2 to ramp up deliveries once it is commissioned. To date, Russia has not committed to any figure on how much gas will be send to Europe via the new projected route. There is a possibility that it may be at limited capacity.
Conclusion
Winter will always deal unpredictable conditions that impact the market one way or another. Continued growth in demand and tight supply during the energy transition will put upward pressure on prices throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Using market simulation such as has been done in this study allows one to quickly analyze a variety of potential assumptions and scenario outlooks to determine a credible range of results in order to make good decisions to achieve an organization’s goals including those demanded by the energy transition.
Team Leads:
RBAC
Dr. Ning Lin, Ph.D. – ning.lin@rbac.com
Dr. Robert Brooks, Ph.D. – robert.brooks@rbac.com
Refinitiv
Nantanaporn Udomchaiporn – nantanaporn.udomchaiporn@refinitiv.com
Xin Tang – xin.tang@refinitiv.com
RBAC Inc. is the market leading supplier of global and regional gas and LNG market simulation systems. These systems provide industry analysts powerful tools for supporting corporate investment and M&A strategy, improving free cash flow, achieving environmental and sustainability goals, including reduction of CO2 emissions, conducting credible and useful risk analysis and planning, and enhancing profitability in commodity trading. Organizations using RBAC’s products and services include energy industry firms and consultants, ISOs and RTOs, and government agencies involved with energy, transportation, and the environment. The G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ is designed for developing scenarios for the converging global gas market. It is a complete system of interrelated models for forecasting natural gas and LNG production, transportation, storage, and deliveries across the global gas markets.
Refinitiv, an LSEG business, is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure. Serving more than 40,000 institutions in over 190 countries, we provide information, insights, and technology that drive innovation and performance in global markets. Refinitiv Natural Gas and LNG Research teams provide the most comprehensive insights on market developments, price movements and supply/demand forecasts by leveraging sophisticated proprietary modelling and forecasting techniques. Our reports can help you understand the global gas market and empower you to make informed trading decisions. For more information, please visit: //www.refinitiv.com/en
