各位了解到恶劣夏天致使中美洲非本身气使用量和电网领域（诸如德克萨斯州）诱发很多次黏结故障率，去那里的提供、要和报价和平深受冲刺，管材和汽化非本身气使用量销往的可以减少在国内生成了品牌加盟的反应。 随之夏天事件真相，国内能量政策性因的气候都發生变化状况而發生提升，致使国内非本身气使用量和汽化非本身气使用量领域保持不认定性处理。
为了能回应等等改变，路孚特和 RBAC 将有一套最新上线的空气指数预告场景各类本身气和夜化本身气基础设施建设有效市扬理论、政策解读、料工费和明确层面的大批量改变归入了 RBAC 的 G2M2 ®世界十大排名本身气預測探讨系统性™，专门针对世界十大排名本身气市扬开始了完全和主观的摸拟探讨。 本上报仔细介绍书了美国的、澳大利亚和亚洲地区市扬一直改变的动态展示，有所帮助您为末来的每动荡不安空气指数预告制作好做好充准备分并渡过难题。
百度百科：
2023年春季，RBAC和路孚特刚开始媒体合作关系开放了诸多画面，体现了何时来的2020/202半年秋季的时候和某个大自然气卖场的上动态的。 这回媒体合作关系提出的大自然气发展潜力引致了通用的方法的前所未有私信，可是2020/202半年的真正秋季的不良影响要比分折的画面并不大。 应用于南极寒流摸拟的的结果更严重的，伤害力很大。 储气量被变低到快消失的低含量，全世界大自然气卖场的上在202半年快速回温。如今2021/2023年秋季的快要来临，RBAC和路孚特-RBAC发布消息202半年全世界而短时间内大自然气和液化石油气大自然气卖场的上发展规划，为北半球何时来的冬季取暖季度具备有实用价值的决定性。
RBAC 微商团体应用率 G2M2® 建设了总金额36 月的預测，应用率市面通常面问题和天汽刺激性性深入研究板块市面内的互连。该微商团体应用率19种画面来评定天汽对国际纯管道煤气均衡性的影响到，及其北美地区、澳洲和欧洲枢纽站的多少钱。
此贴期盼手机分享近年纵览的重点知识，并将近年与2018年的预计使用客观事实的十分和研究分析，借以改善我们大家对市面 模拟系统的表达。
亨利港（Henry Hub）价格多少对夜化天然水气出口型的会影响
如果你们回忆2020-2023年时间内Refinitiv-RBAC世界上短期计划非人工气和夜化非人工气市厂发展趋势（于2030年17月发表过）时，但其中核心的体会具有低于几条多方面：
• 秋季消费的需求几率是亨利港 2020 年第 4 月度和 2021 年第 1 月度价值的常见驱动器问题其中之一。澳大利亚秋季消费的需求势头，几率会使纯自然气管道留到国內，而并非用于液化石油气纯自然气管道运至在国外。
• 朝后 COVID 世界里中，研发加工商将强逼在治理短时间是研发加工多方面比较灵活性，而并非方便达成更积极主动的增长率而费用很多银行存款。
• 欧洲地区和欧洲的中国内地市场需求都依耐于煤气自然气进口商，但对领域价钱的应响各种不同。
可与事实的前提相对来说其研发的20个天气查询预报情境（随着之前20年的数据报告）不兼容逐年下降的的前提。因为实体模型的统计假设不行极度，没有办法进一步推动存在G2M2®环球非人工气推测解析的期货价额暴涨、要求撞击和供给提高，以更加接近事实情况的夏秋季天气查询预报条件。
2021 年 2 月，南美的实际情况需要这般（请参阅右图，请关注右上图的纵坐标定位轴的费用是左上图的两倍）。昨年该报告中相结合的情景对话、信息和模仿必要条件无法能够充分遵循南美主耍矿区电力设备和天然水水气管道的过夏筹备过少及就此对煤气天然水水气出口产品引发影响力的未指定关键因素。
图形1 - 2020/2021亨利港（Henry Hub）费用和美利坚汽化本身气出口国预侧
数据图表 2 - 2021/2022 （Henry Hub）亨利联络线价位和法国煤气天然的气出口贸易预測
该研究方案的2021-22年回顾信息显示，22年亨利港的年评平均房价每平格增加至5.50人民币 /MmBtu以內，而昨年的报告格式为3.50人民币 /MmBtu。 最后，与昨年的分析相左，今年的美利坚夜化自然气外贸出口估计工作靠近100%的产量。
通常人认为，伴随（韩国）内部当然气收费的上浮，夜化当然气外贸出口将降低，这是由于内部股票领域将造成大些的销售收入竞争力。 然后，环境并不一定是这样的，这是由于世界当然气和夜化当然气收费爆涨，产生资源贫乏，也欧式季节来袭的时候，处理级别最低正常的级别，因为欧式股票领域的销售收入的空间可以会大些。
欧洲绿色气和液化石油气绿色气多少钱
因此全世界提供减少再印象纯煤气和汽化纯煤气市場，源于的使用G2M2®的几种天气查询前景，该报告格式预侧出美利坚汽化纯煤气外贸出口的收费差多于5人民币/MMBtu。
统计图表3 - 2021/2022 JKM 和TTF的价格多少
欧州绿色气餐饮市场 - TTF 多少钱驱动软件因素分析
澳大利亚随意调节：
殊不知是在夏秋季或不正确酷暑的夏日，非洲的储气库存量商品一直都在相对比较而言极其固定。以至于，创历史纪录低值的非洲东南部楼顶储备存量商品给TTF售价受到了庞然大物的下行压。 在以往的英文 5 年度，从 NWE 储备的夏秋季导入的天然冰气量从 2018-19 年湿润夏秋季的 210 TWh 急剧驻车制动 2017-18 年是极冷的夏秋季的 400 TWh。2020/2015时间内夏秋季介于正确天气状况横向，但储备横向越来越低了380 TWh。
图形 4 - 西方数据库库存商品技术
2020/202在年 很冷的东季，仍然北美洲要求在十分很冷的很冷的东季增高，煤气绿色冰气进品厂家直销减低，造成的煤气绿色冰气进品量超出一切正常程度。煤气绿色冰气的上传量为20Bcm（220 TWh），不高于前年 的33Bcm（360 TWh）。
2021 年 6 下六个月，澳洲手机存储库存量为 160 TWh 或功率的 30%，为上去 5 年（2016-2020 年）的比较低品质，显著最低 64% 的三年人均品质。另外2021年注气延迟时间了一过一名月。甚至介绍才已经始于注气，而从经验上看，注气是在4日份已经始于的。
条形图 5 – 海外西南部地下商场储气库状况
研究分析技术团队实用的 G2M2 仿真模型特征提取 19 种季节情境，分为种与众不同的具体需求推测。这么多计划的毕竟得出结论，预计在近日冬春（2月-三月份）法国东北边每次大约230 TWh的具有气将被取出来。
在2020年-2020年的初冬，该建模 分析储备关卡约为 135 TWh 或储备余量的 25%。相信于此，5年的均匀数值为35%。预期今年年底美国东北区域储备存货关卡将不断少于5年均匀关卡，也许有一天2024年底性能追上5年均匀关卡。
统计图表 6 - G2M2 欧洲其他国家保存库存积压水平方向
从白俄罗斯进口商：
哪怕非洲大区域我国一直在关键地开始能量转变，但其先天冰气餐饮市场仍重要忽略先天冰气和夜化先天冰气的入口，已考虑境内要求。来到欧洲经济共同体我国的先天冰气基本进行俄国、澳大利亚和北非的管甚至出于当今世界全省各地的夜化先天冰气运输车气流输送。
近几十一个月来，俄国对美国非人工气出售的不知道性对TTF报价生产了非常的大损害。美国市场上对非人工气出售改变的某些征兆的影响仍要非常的剧烈。在下该图，当导致新的有观北溪2号的事件处理和通知，举例子相关政策改变和存储量网上拍卖可是等，报价均会有一些·变化。
条形图 7 – 北溪一号涉及到惨案和公示公告对单价的直接影响
拉丁美洲天然冰气生育：
法国先天气生年产量继读上升，进一步的一个脚印诱发了TTF费用的上涨有压力。自 2018 年 1 月十八大以来，法国每一天先天气生年产量从约 2.8亿减至1.15亿立米米。主要是因为清洁能源创新发展的指标现在已经判别，未现象体现了拉丁美洲经济共同体政府将全力联合开发国內的五天。为安稳费用，法国可以找出是一种工艺已有保障较多的先天气的安稳现货供应，而在在这个不判别的阶段，形式还是算不上静美。
图形 8 - 拉丁美洲天然植物气出产
常见得出结论
运行 RBAC的G2M2®世界非石油气推测定量分析装置系统设计各式各样气候情況下模拟网不一样的场景设计，自己显示打了个些至关重要总结，在要考虑到素冬天行业的常见时，想要加上评价。
• 与平日往常类似，夏天是极限的未命名数和投资风险其中之一。
• 由此可见近年来全.球具有气卖场的重要状况发生，北半球丝毫特大型卖场（美利坚共和国、荷兰或亚洲区）的冬春都比常见极冷，这将致使主耍枢纽站价值进一歩持续上涨，主耍具有气卖场可能性会在冬春面临着预期的风险。
• 这样2019初冬失常炎热，实际消耗量将逐年添加，区城内的停电概率是无可制止的。
再者，鉴于国家须得更长的时来补给其楼顶储气的库存商品，这代表着世界各国纯管道煤气餐饮市场的快节奏方式将持续不断更长的时。
• 在我国、南北美洲等地区的的需求延长可能会会日趋严重现股票市场的紧缺，逼迫亞洲和欧洲国家业主抢占相等的汽化天然植物气供气。
• 欧洲国家入口墨西哥的排水管道当然气总数量将以后被受到限制，直接影响问题仍重在北溪二线城市啥时候能真正的投建。
• 关羽北溪第二线城市，原因其企业认可证书具体流程等因素分析，开展重启期限英文展开经常出现很多网络延迟，这些是排水管劳动合同制投身安全使用和展开行业流先前的末尾一歩。除别的装修细节外，企业认可证书时得到荷兰经济制裁和瑞典批驳，但是重启证件耗费长，就没有办法达到在此前定的2023年-10月1日展开期限英文。从3月初排水管营销推广商向传统系统化组织 审核申请表展开，企业认可证书时开展要求6-9个月功能达成。在这一次分析中的假如说是北溪第二线城市于明年一、季度、半年度末展开劳动合同制投身商用机。
• 另一个个隐患是，可能支出安全使用，北溪一号应该多大日子功能新增收货量。现今结束，土耳其没有的承诺用新的平均路线地图向澳洲运送很多非石油气。立于这类实际情况，澳洲进口货土耳其的给水管非石油气排放量仍将遭遇被限。
实验结论
夏季都是会以其实或那样的话的形式工作后果市厂的不能不预知的事情。 燃料开发变革哺乳期间的需求坚持增涨和供货怯场将给整块北半球的行业价格面临上涨压。 用到本研究探讨中均做的市厂模似，能够高速 具体分析不同风险假定和情境回顾，以确定好一这些靠谱吗的最终结果，是为了进行对的决策分析，建立组识的阶段工作目标，以及燃料开发分层应要求的阶段工作目标。
RBAC集团创于于198八年，核心负责任联合发掘和维护是世界和区域性先天气和汽化先天气贸易市場预測控制设汁，其应用高中数学课设汁规划、数据个人信息研究具体分析一下研究具体分析一下、高中数学课百度算法联合发掘和数据个人信息库设汁规划问题等工程专业的知识向再生资源服务行业集团相应涉及到再生资源、交通管理和工作环境的中央政府结构出示雄厚的研究具体分析一下工貝。G2M2®世界先天气预測研究具体分析一下控制设汁™专为世界先天气贸易市場的相结合联合发掘规划而设汁规划。它都是套完整详细的类别控制设汁，用做预測世界先天气贸易市場的先天气和汽化先天气种植、货物运输、会自动储存和购物。欲明白大量个人信息，请浏览：//rbac.com/
James Brooks, Ning Lin, Xin Tang
Background:
When caught in a heavy storm there is a natural reaction to go into a mode of coping to the situation. That coping may get you through the storm but could have long term unexpected ramifications. Since the release of last year’s Refinitiv-RBAC 2020/2021 Winter Outlook a lot has changed in energy economics, operations, trade and infrastructure.
We have seen extreme weather drive multiple compound failures in the North American gas and power markets (e.g. Texas), where supply, demand and price balances were shocked and a reduction in exports by pipeline and LNG created ripple effects across the globe. Along with weather events, a shift in global energy policy due to climate change concerns has contributed to the uncertainty swirling around gas and LNG markets around the world.
To deal with these changes, Refinitiv and RBAC have incorporated a whole new set of weather scenarios along with numerous changes in gas and LNG fundamentals, policies, costs and constraints into RBAC’s G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™, in order to produce an updated outlook for the 2021/2022 winter season. This report gives a detailed look at the changing dynamics of the U.S., European and Asian markets and delivers real insights to help you prepare for and get through any tumultuous weather ahead.
Introduction:
In the Fall of 2020, analysts at RBAC and Refinitiv partnered to develop several scenarios around the upcoming 2020/2021 winter season’s weather and other gas market dynamics. Simulations using G2M2 yielded several impactful insights including:
· Winter demand would likely be one of the primary drivers for Henry Hub price for 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q1. Strong US winter demand would likely keep gas at home rather than being sent overseas as LNG.
· In a post-COVID world, producers would be forced to be more flexible in managing short-cycle production, rather than outspending cash to achieve more aggressive growth.
· Europe and Asia domestic demand would both rely on LNG imports but influence its regional price differently.
This initial joint gas outlook generated a great deal of attention from the industry. But the actual winter of 2020/2021 had a far greater impact. Arctic blasts were more severe and more damaging than the results of all scenarios the team simulated. Gas storage was drawn down to dangerously low levels. As a result global gas markets have heated up to prepare for this coming winter. With the 2021/2022 winter season approaching, the RBAC and Refinitiv team has rededicated its efforts to producing a winter gas outlook for the coming heating season in the northern hemisphere.
Like in the previous study, the Refinitiv-RBAC team developed a series of 36 month forecasts using G2M2, exploring the interconnection between regional markets using both fundamental drivers and weather sensitivities. The team made runs using 19 different weather scenarios to estimate their impact on the global gas balance as well as prices at hubs in North America, Europe, and Asia.
Impact of Henry Hub Price on LNG Exports
As we look back at the 2020/2021 Refinitiv-RBAC study, the 20 weather scenarios studied (based on the last 20 years of data) predicted a far less tumultuous and volatile winter season than nature delivered. Scenarios were not severe enough to push the simulation to generate spot price spikes, demand shocks and supply reductions approaching those that resulted from winter weather conditions that actually happened.
This was especially true for North America in February 2021 (see lower-left graph below but note the price scale is twice that of the upper left graph). The scenarios, data and simulation conditions could not have included the unknown factors around the unpreparedness of an insufficiently winterized power and gas pipeline network in the key producing region of North America and the resultant impact on LNG exports.
Chart 1 – 2020/2021 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
Chart 2 – 2021/2022 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
The study’s 2021/2022 outlook shows a significant increase in the average Henry Hub price to about $5.50/MmBtu in 2022 compared to $3.50MmBtu in last year’s study. In addition, in contradistinction to last year’s forecast, this year’s study projects LNG exports running close to 100% capacity throughout the forecast.
One might think with the increase in domestic prices for gas one would see a reduction in LNG exports as domestic markets would yield a greater potential for profit. However, that is not the case, as global gas and LNG prices have skyrocketed with supply shortages and lower than normal storage levels on the cusp of winter in Europe.
Global Gas and LNG Price
As global supply constraints continue to impact the gas and LNG markets, regardless of the varied weather scenarios studied using G2M2, the study projects price spreads for US LNG exports well above $5/MMBtu for the coming winter.
Chart 3 – 2021/2022 JKM and TTF Prices
European Gas Market – TTF Price Drivers
European Storage:
Gas storage has always been the market stabilizing factor during the winter season or unusually hot summers. However, record low Northwest European underground storage inventories have put intense upward pressure on TTF prices. Over the last 5 years, the amount of gas withdrawn during winter from NWE storage has swung wildly from 210 TWh during a mild winter of 2018-19 to 400 TWh in a very cold winter of 2017-18. The 2020/2021 winter was near normal weather conditions, but storage levels were down by 380 TWh.
Chart 4 – European Storage Inventory Levels
Imports from Russia:
Although European nations are leading the way in the energy transition, European gas markets still rely heavily on gas and LNG imports to meet domestic demand. Gas imports into the EU are mainly delivered through pipelines from Russia, Norway, and North Africa as well as by LNG tankers from around the world.
In recent months, uncertainty around Russian gas supply to Europe have had a significant impact on TTF prices. The European market continues to be very reactive to any indication of changes to gas supply. For example, there was a very strong reaction to potential changes around Russian supply from the Nordstream 2 pipeline and capacity auction results as you can see in the chart below.
Chart 7 – Price Impact of Supply Events and Announcements
European Gas Production:
Further exacerbating the upward pressure on TTF prices, European gas production has continued to decline. There has been a drop in production from approximately 280 to 160 MCM/D since January 2018. With the targets for the energy transition well established, there is no indication that the EU will bolster domestic production. In order to stabilize prices, it will need to find a way to secure more gas supply, which will prove to be quite difficult in these uncertain times.
Chart 8 – European Gas Production
Key Take-Aways
Running a variety of weather scenarios using RBAC’s G2M2 Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG has yielded some very important take-aways that need to be evaluated when considering one’s market fundamentals analysis for the upcoming winter season.
·; As always, the weather is one of the biggest unknowns and risks.
· Given the current tightness situation in the gas market globally, colder than normal winter in any of the big markets of the Northern hemisphere (US, Europe or Asia) would send major hub prices even higher and leave markets with the risk of a physical gas shortage over the winter months.
· Some blackouts or demand disruptions may be inevitable if demand is unusually high this winter.
· In addition, this also means that the tightness in global gas market will remain for longer as it will take more time for countries to replenish their underground storage stocks.
· Demand growth in other regions (i.e., China, South America) could exacerbate the current tightness in the market forcing Asian and European customers to compete for the same LNG cargoes.
· Europe could expect continuing limited Russia gas supply. When it will begin flowing and how much gas to be expected from Nord Stream 2 is still quite uncertain.
· Regarding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, there has already been some delay in the expected start date due to its certification process, which is a mandatory final step before the pipeline can be commissioned and start commercial flows. Among other things, the certification process was hampered by American sanctions and opposition from Poland and did not start soon enough to meet the originally scheduled start date of October 1st, 2021. The certification process is expected to take up to 6-8 months to complete from early September when the pipeline operator submitted its application to the German regulator. For this study, the team has assumed it to start flowing by the end of Q1 2022.
· Another risk is how long it will take Nord Stream 2 to ramp up deliveries once it is commissioned. To date, Russia has not committed to any figure on how much gas will be send to Europe via the new projected route. There is a possibility that it may be at limited capacity.
Conclusion
Winter will always deal unpredictable conditions that impact the market one way or another. Continued growth in demand and tight supply during the energy transition will put upward pressure on prices throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Using market simulation such as has been done in this study allows one to quickly analyze a variety of potential assumptions and scenario outlooks to determine a credible range of results in order to make good decisions to achieve an organization’s goals including those demanded by the energy transition.
Team Leads:
RBAC
Dr. Ning Lin, Ph.D. – ning.lin@rbac.com
Dr. Robert Brooks, Ph.D. – robert.brooks@rbac.com
Refinitiv
Nantanaporn Udomchaiporn – nantanaporn.udomchaiporn@refinitiv.com
Xin Tang – xin.tang@refinitiv.com
RBAC Inc. is the market leading supplier of global and regional gas and LNG market simulation systems. These systems provide industry analysts powerful tools for supporting corporate investment and M&A strategy, improving free cash flow, achieving environmental and sustainability goals, including reduction of CO2 emissions, conducting credible and useful risk analysis and planning, and enhancing profitability in commodity trading. Organizations using RBAC’s products and services include energy industry firms and consultants, ISOs and RTOs, and government agencies involved with energy, transportation, and the environment. The G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ is designed for developing scenarios for the converging global gas market. It is a complete system of interrelated models for forecasting natural gas and LNG production, transportation, storage, and deliveries across the global gas markets.
Refinitiv, an LSEG business, is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure. Serving more than 40,000 institutions in over 190 countries, we provide information, insights, and technology that drive innovation and performance in global markets. Refinitiv Natural Gas and LNG Research teams provide the most comprehensive insights on market developments, price movements and supply/demand forecasts by leveraging sophisticated proprietary modelling and forecasting techniques. Our reports can help you understand the global gas market and empower you to make informed trading decisions. For more information, please visit: //www.refinitiv.com/en
